The Austin metro area has secured the title of the fastest-growing region in the United States for the 12th consecutive year, as revealed by City Demographer Lila Valencia during a recent city council work session. The city's estimated population in 2022 reached 974,447, marking a 1.3% increase since the 2020 census, and it continues to approach the one million mark. Remarkably, this growth defies a national trend, with 53% of cities with over 50,000 residents experiencing population declines since 2020, according to Valencia.
However, the rapid growth is not only confined to Austin but is also evident in suburban areas like Georgetown, Kyle, and Leander, which ranked among the top four fastest-growing cities in 2022. Valencia highlights the shifting demographic landscape, noting that the suburban surge has led to a decline in Austin's share of the total regional population, dropping from 59% in 1980 to 42% in 2020.
City projections forecast a population surge for Austin, reaching 1.1 million by 2030 and over 1.6 million by 2060. Concurrently, the broader metro area is anticipated to grow to 2.8 million by 2030 and more than 4.3 million by 2060. If these projections materialize, Austin's share of the metro population is expected to decrease to 38% by 2060.
The driving force behind the region's growth is primarily inbound migration, with approximately three-quarters of the population increase in 2021 attributed to domestic migration from other states or different parts of Texas. Valencia underscores the immediate impact of migration on resources, placing immediate demands on housing, utilities, transportation, and other city services. Notably, immigrants to Austin tend to be in the "peak working age" of 25 to 35 years old, exacerbating the strain on resources.
This heightened demand has contributed to soaring home prices in Austin, with the average home price now 3.6 times greater than in 1990 and more than doubling in the past decade alone. Despite the city adding a record-breaking 90,175 housing units between 2010 and 2020, the surge in household formation has outpaced housing unit growth, creating a mismatch in supply and demand. Valencia underscores the challenge of this dynamic, stating, "If we think of housing units as the supply and household formation as the demand, then we can see the mismatch in production to household formation."